CNN MONEY Report, Housing: Best time to buy in four years-Tampa, Fl

Home values have declined across the country, giving homebuyers the best buys they've had since 2004.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: March 5, 2008: 10:40 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- It may be the best time to buy a house in more than four years.

Home prices have dropped so quickly and so far that valuations - the difference between what a home should cost and its actual price - are the lowest they've been since 2004, according to a report.

The Cleveland-based bank National City Corp. (NCC, Fortune 500), together with financial analysis firm Global Insight, revealed Tuesday that more than 88% of the 330 housing markets surveyed showed price declines and improved affordability during the last three months of 2007.

"Housing valuations are almost back to long-term norms," said National City's chief economist, Richard DeKaser. He called current affordability "the best in the past four years."
But DeKaser cautioned that home prices could fall even further.

"This isn't to say home price declines are over," he said. "We could move below historic norms. By the end of 2008, housing markets could be broadly under valued."

"Declines are no longer confined to once-frothy markets," said DeKaser. The survey covered home valuations during the last three months of 2007, but DeKaser pointed out there's reason to believe that valuations are even more favorable for buyers today.

Price declines have continued into 2008 and interest rates, although they have inched up lately, have been steady or lower compared to late last year. There have even been wage gains; personal income rose 0.5% in December. Soaring foreclosure rates have added inventory to many housing markets, depressing home prices further.

The biggest gains in affordability occurred in California, Michigan and Florida, which are areas that have also been some of the hardest hit by foreclosures. Those states registered 43 of the 50 biggest price declines.

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Thinking about buying or selling real estate in the Tampa Bay Area? Have a Real Estate question?
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Article about how you can save money if you buy NOW-Tampa, Fl

View this Westshore Condo for Sale

Thursday, Feb. 14, 2008
Ignore the Headlines
By Dan Kadlec
Correction Appended: February 19, 2008

Famed Money Manager is perhaps best known for his timeless wisdom that you can beat the pros by focusing on stocks of companies where you either work or shop or have some other edge. But a more relevant Lynchism today is this gem: Ignore the headlines.

That's no easy thing. How do you tune out all the chatter and ink on recession, housing, subprime woes, the credit crunch, rogue traders, insolvent bond insurers, $100 oil and nukes in Iran? It's enough to make you sit on your thumbs and wait before making any big moves. But what, exactly, are you waiting for?

There has rarely been a moment in history when you couldn't scare yourself into doing nothing. And yet, as Lynch observed nearly 20 years ago, "in spite of all the great and minor calamities that have occurred ... all the thousands of reasons that the world might be coming to an end--owning stocks has continued to be twice as rewarding as owning bonds."

A top reason to not buy stocks, in Lynch's view, is if you don't already own a home--in which case, that should be your first investment, since an owner-occupied home is nearly always profitable. Through a spokesman, Lynch reaffirmed these views to me--housing debacle and all.

When prices are falling, few people have the discipline to buy stocks, a house, gold, art or any other asset. But those who do pull the trigger excel in the long run. As John D. Rockefeller famously said, "The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets." And the streets are stained crimson.

Start with stocks. They have been pummeled this year. GDP braked sharply last quarter, and there has been plenty of panic about a recession. The Federal Reserve is slashing short-term interest rates at the fastest clip in decades. But if you stick to your steady, diversified plan while everyone else is retreating, you will be happy years from now.

For one thing, Fed rate cuts always lift the economy eventually, and the stock market typically starts responding just as headlines get gloomiest. Sure, the market could fall again before recovering. But the recession may be half over already--or we may avoid one altogether. You just never know.

As for housing, certainly some skepticism is in order. Formerly sizzling markets in Florida, Nevada, Arizona and California probably haven't seen the worst headlines just yet, though they may well be close. And "jumbo" mortgages, those more than $417,000, are likely to remain artificially high for a few more months while banks work through their credit issues.

But let's say you are emotionally ready to be a homeowner. You have good credit, plan to stay put for five years and have been waiting for the perfect entry point. It's time to get serious--before an inevitable rise in interest rates wipes out your advantage. "The thing that will make home prices stop falling is the very same thing that will push mortgage rates higher," says Jim Svinth, chief economist at mortgage firm Lending Tree. So anything you gain by a further drop in prices might be offset by rising financing costs.

Consider a typical home that sells for $218,900. You put down 20% and get a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at today's rate of 5.5%. Monthly principal and interest come to $994.31. Let's say that 12 months from now the same house goes for 10% less, or $197,010. But by then the recession is history and the Fed is jacking up rates to stem inflation. If mortgage costs rise a point, to 6.5%, your monthly payment would be $994.94 and you'd have saved nothing.

Meanwhile, home prices might steady and sellers might become less willing to negotiate. And you have spent a year living someplace you'd rather not be.

It's more complicated if you must sell before you can buy. But that logjam won't persist forever--and if it appears you'll be trapped for a few years, try to refinance at today's lower rates. Risks always seem most acute when the headlines give you ulcers. But that's exactly when you should think long term--and get off your thumbs.

Thinking about buying or selling real estate in the Tampa Bay Area? Have a Real Estate question?
Feel free to email or call us 813-784-7744
Rae Catanese and Michelle Jordan
Realtors.

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Lennar Homes unloads 8,300 residential lots

Tampa Bay Business Journal - by Michael Hinman

Metro Development Group is getting a hold of nearly 4,000 acres of land in seven counties after completing its largest land purchase in company history.

Metro, based in Tampa, is buying nearly 4,900 home sites in Pasco, Hillsborough, Polk and Sarasota counties as well as 3,400 other home sites in Lee, DeSoto and Brevard counties from Miami-based Lennar Homes.

The purchase - which was completed on Friday for undisclosed terms - was part of "long-range acquisition strategies developed" by the company, said Rob Ahrens, spokesman for Metro Development. The deal increases Metro's land inventory by nearly 40 percent, and brings the company's total land holdings to 30,000 home sites.

"We have tremendous confidence in Florida and the resiliency of the state's residential real estate market," said Ahrens in a release. "We know that current concerns about homebuilding will be resolved in the coming months, and when they are, we plan to be a major player in providing finished home sites to builders who will need them."

The purchases include 3,905 home sites covering 1,700 acres at Epperson Ranch in Pasco County, 530 home sites on 140 acres at Waterleaf in Hillsborough County, 393 home sites on 94 acres at Leomas Landing in Polk County, and 98 home sites on 41 acres in Sarasota County.



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NEW PORT TAMPA BAY-UPDATE

Thursday, October 25, 2007 - 2:41 PM EDT
New Port Tampa Bay land put on market
Tampa Bay Business Journal - by Michael Hinman

Colliers Arnold Commercial Real Estate Services has confirmed it will handle the potential sale or alternative capital structure for the 52-acre site pegged for New Port Tampa Bay.

Ed Oelschlaeger, president of New Port developer EcoGroup Inc., told the Tampa Bay Business Journal last week that as part of the company's regrouping to move the 1,250-unit project forward sometime in 2008, he was exploring the options of bringing in a partner or selling the property outright.

"We're trying to recapitalize New Port, and part of that effort is to sell the project," Oelschlaeger said. "It's possible that EcoGroup would not be involved going forward under some circumstances, but we should be here under most circumstances."

While New Port was planning just less than 1,300 residences, Colliers Arnold said the property already is zoned for 1,750 residences and 240,000 square feet of commercial use near the intersection of Gandy and Westshore boulevards in Tampa.

"The vision for the site is extremely exciting, and we're confident it will be developed to its fullest potential as a waterfront community," said John F. Gerlach, a broker with Colliers Arnold, in a release. "We are committed to helping EcoGroup find exactly the right party who will take this property to its highest and best use in the years ahead."

Deposits for units have already been refunded, and Oelschlaeger said new ideas are being put together that could possibly keep most of the project intact, except with lower price points and smaller construction phases.


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Survey reveals 49% of consumers say right now is the time to buy!

Tampa Bay Business Journal - August 17, 2007
by Michael Hinman
Staff Writer

More than half of the homeowners in the Tampa Bay region feel that this is as good a time as any to buy a new home, but getting them to buy is a different story.

Sales for existing homes continue to decline as much as 35 percent in the area while median prices are dropping just 6 percent according to the Florida Association of Realtors. However, a new survey from Attorney's Title Insurance Fund says many potential buyers are waiting to see how the currently volatile market will play out.

"I've had a couple of people tell me that they are going to wait to see what happens next year," said Rae Catanese, a Real Estate Agent with Prudential Tropical Realty in South Tampa. "With as many homes that are on the market right now, I think there has just been too much bad publicity lately about the market and people are scared of the unknown."

Harris Interactive conducted the housing survey on behalf of the Insurance Fund in June, asking more than 1,400 homeowners in Florida their thoughts on the current housing market.

Some 49 percent in the Tampa area said right now is a good time to buy a house or condominium compared to 42 percent last year. However, just 25 percent of those respondents said they intend to buy a home themselves in the next two years.

A January report by the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors said available inventory in the area had doubled since the beginning of 2006 and that an increased inventory played into lower prices.

Buyers waiting for larger drops may be missing an opportunity. Lawrence Yun, a senior economist with the National Association of Realtors, said new construction has been drastically reduced, causing existing home median prices to actually rise nearly 2 percent nationwide by early next year.


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Prudential Tropical Realty adds Quality Service Certified® professionals-Tampa, Fl

Rae Catanese

Realtor

Prudential Tropical Realty

813-784-7744

View my website

For Immediate Release 3/15/07

We're Held to a Higher Standard!

Prudential Tropical Realty's Quality Service Certified® professionals offer consumers the confidence of a reliable, consistent and accountable customer service process. Quality Service Certified® assures you the highest level of service in the real estate industry.

Our World Class Service Guarantee Ensures Your Real Estate Professional will:

• 
  Prepare a Competitive Market Analysis to assist in developing a pricing strategy


• 
  Create and present a written marketing plan with strategies, programs and buyer targets


• 
  Commit to regular communication and feedback


• 
  Monitor and communicate the status and satisfaction of contract contingencies


• 
  Complete a thorough market search to identify properties consistent with your needs and price range


• 
  Prepare a written offer to purchase the property of your choice reflecting your price and terms encompassing all required disclosures


• 
  Provide advice and negotiating assistance on all offers to purchase
  Contact you and follow up after closing to assure the satisfactory completion of all service details


• 
  Offer you the opportunity to evaluate the services provided through the Quality Service Assurance Survey

QSC offers independent validation of service performance and provides an assessment for individuals, offices and companies. Associates earn the QSC designation following the completion of course studies and the passing of a detailed examination. A Quality Service Assurance Survey© is sent to each buyer or seller after a home purchase or sale closes to measure the customer’s satisfaction level of their real estate professional. The service performance assessment is produced from these surveys by an independent third-party organization and posted online to a public web site at
www.QualityService.org.

© 2007, An independently owned and operated member of Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc. is a servicemark of The Prudential Insurance Company of America. Equal Housing Opportunity
Copyright Prudential Tropical Realty

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Real Estate Market Downturn Nearing End? Tampa, Fl

Real Estate Market Downturn Nearing End?



The increase in unsold listings was this cycle's early warning indicator, the economist points out. And a decline will be the sign that the market is rebalancing itself. Real estate consultant, John Burns, says "The supply problem will be resolved when the market returns to 2.5 months of supply in the resale market, and only a few standing units of inventory in a typical new home subdivision," he says. In a sales meeting yesterday, speaker Patrick Ferry told us that the Tampa Bay Area has a 8-10 month supply of homes on the market.

The correction "could take years" in outlying areas. In built-out markets such as San Diego, over-supply is "likely to correct earlier" than in sprawling markets like Phoenix. But economic growth will "play a huge role as well," and help many markets recover sooner.

Home builders have already corrected for their share of the over-supply. During the boom years, builders overbuilt the market on a national basis by about 15 percent, he wrote. Last year's construction pace was at about 2.3 million units, but the rate has already slowed to 1.8 million, which is less than the 1.9 million to 2.1 million units a year that are needed to satisfy the demographics of the housing market.

The housing economist told his clients to worry more about the location and price of the oversupply than the overall number itself. The Nation's Capital is one example where location and price matter more. In the Washington metro area, a healthy ratio of 2.2 jobs were created for every new housing start. Unfortunately, most of the development is occurring outside the market's main employment centers. And D.C. is not alone. In Phoenix, the largest number of resale houses on the market are on the outskirts of town, which is exactly where home builders are most active. And construction in Tampa, Orlando and Sacramento, to name just a few places, is most active far away from where the jobs are.

The investment leg of the stool is the wild card. Demand is strong, just not at current prices, he says. "Affordability is an issue in the major markets, but not everywhere."

On the other hand, consumer confidence is strong. In fact, it hasn't been an issue, at least not like it has been in previous down cycles, largely because most folks are secure in their jobs, the housing consultant says.

But speculators remain a bugaboo. At the height of the market, Burns says, "an unprecedented level of investors created 40 percent more sales activity" than should normally have been created. Now, we have to wait and see how they will react. Will they hold until the market turns more favorable, or will they panic and sell at any price just to be over and done with it?

As in politics, all housing markets are local. But if you are watching the national numbers, Burns concludes that 5.6 million total sales -- both new and used -- is indicative of a normal level of demand.

In June 2005, the annual rate reached 8.5 million. But it has already slowed to 7.3 million. Unfortunately, he believes the market will need to over-correct to below the 5.6 million benchmark because of affordability problems and the huge number of investors before it can right itself and begin heading north again.

If you are thinking of selling your home you can visit http://www.tampabaydwellings.com and receive a free home market analysis.